Maintaining the U.S. Navy’s fleet requires long-term planning that accounts for the retirement of ships at the end of their service life, developing and procuring new ships, and aligning the size of the fleet and the mix of types of ships to evolving defense goals. Earlier this year, the Navy released a document outlining its latest long-range shipbuilding strategy, detailing construction and retirement plans for the fleet over the next three decades.
As noted in a September 24, 2024, report from the Congressional Research Service, “Navy Force Structure and Shipbuilding Plans: Background and Issues for Congress,” the number of battle force ships in the Navy fleet fell below 300 in August 2003 and has not risen above that number since. The Navy had 297 battle force ships as of September 16, 2024. To meet the service’s obligation to the Pentagon’s National Defense Strategy, it has set a long-term goal of increasing the size of the fleet to 381 ships. However, as this year’s report acknowledges, whether that goal is possible depends on funding.
Two Paths to U.S. Navy Fleet Growth
The strategy document outlines two potential outcomes: one which assumes funding necessary to pursue building a larger fleet, designated as the Navy’s official shipbuilding plan, and another that illustrates the limitations to fleet maintenance and growth if budgets do not grow beyond inflation.
Under the optimal plan, the Navy’s manned battle force would increase to over 330 ships in the mid-2030s, reach the target number of 381 in 2043, and ultimately increase to 387 ships in 2054. By contrast, under a constrained-resource scenario, the fleet would number 345 in 2043, roughly 10 percent lower than the goal. From that point, the overall size of the fleet would remain stagnant, numbering a projected 342 in 2054.
Beyond the top-line numbers, a closer look at the two approaches reveals another significant difference. While both scenarios include similar numbers for the submarine fleet and 31 amphibious warships for the Marine Corps, the flat-budget plan supports fewer surface warships (120 versus 145 in the optimal plan as of 2054) and fewer combat logistics force ships (43 versus 56 in the optimal plan as of 2054).
The Congressional Service Research report notes that the service would need a “long-term average of 10 or 11 new manned ships per year … over a period of about 35 years to achieve and maintain a fleet of about 355 or 381 manned ships,” given that over the same period other ships will be approaching the end of their service life and will need to be decommissioned. It will be up to Congress to determine if the larger goal will become U.S. policy and if the Navy will receive the necessary funding to meet it.
Planned Decommissioning
Also included in the strategy is the Navy’s plan to decommission 19 ships in fiscal year 2025. Among those are 10 ships that would be removed from the fleet prior to the end of their service life. In proposing these early retirements, the Navy stated, “decommissioning these ships frees up additional resources to construct more capable and lethal platforms relative to current threats. Legacy platforms that are expensive to repair and maintain and unable to provide relevant capability in contested environments must be retired in order to invest in essential capabilities the Navy needs for our national security.” If Congress approves, that group will include four expeditionary fast transports, one amphibious dock landing ship, one expeditionary transfer dock, two cruisers, and two littoral combat ships.
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